JVP News Roundup: Clashing With Egypt
In recent years, the relationship between Egypt and Israel has gotten more and more strained. It is not coincidence that this strain has occurred in concert with an increased need for cooperation between the two countries, especially when it comes to the Gaza Strip and managing the border between Gaza and Egypt. With the election of Hamas, which was always much stronger in Gaza than in the West Bank (and which, in the early '80s, was initially created as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, the major Islamist opposition group in Egypt), the strained cooperation grew. Now, with the siege on Gaza that has so badly devastated the civilian population there, the tensions between the two countries are festering as Egypt struggles to maintain a balance between its perceived political interests on the international front and its fear of being perceived as being complicit in the massive human suffering in the Strip.
The root of current anxieties between Israel and Egypt is the repeated accusation that Egypt is not doing enough to stem the flow of arms into Gaza. Israel has been repeating this accusation and last month, in response to this charge, the US Congress froze $100 million of the approximately $2 billion annual aid it gives to Egypt. The freeze is in effect until Condoleezza Rice gives Egyptian efforts to prevent smuggling into Gaza her stamp of approval.
There is no doubt that smuggling is happening in Gaza. It is not only arms, but cash, as well as both basic supplies and a few luxury items such as cigarettes that are clandestinely making their way into Gaza. Such smuggling is far from unique to Gaza; indeed, it is a worldwide industry, one which flourishes in poor countries where all manner of merchandise is needed as well as rich ones where extensive and expensive law enforcement programs fail to stem the tide of contraband, including weapons, into the country.
Yet Israel insists that Egypt is not doing enough to stop smuggling into Gaza. This despite the fact that Egyptian announcements are fairly regular of their finding a smuggling tunnel or arresting smugglers. Israel has also refused to allow Egypt to expand the force of 750 security personnel in the Sinai Peninsula near the Gaza border. No one doubts that smuggling is happening and that a steady stream of weaponry is making its way into the Strip. But if smuggling was so easy to stop, plenty of countries aside from Egypt would be having much greater success at stopping it.
This does not mean that Egypt does not face serious obstacles to fully implementing an anti-smuggling program in Sinai. As stated above, Egypt has to consider the damage to its position, both internally and externally, if it is seem too clearly as working with Israel against the Palestinians. The government faces very mixed public opinion about its peace with israel and alliance with the US. The overwhelming majority of Egyptians sympathize with the Palestinian cause, naturally, so it is certainly not hard to find security personnel who are reluctant to stop goods and even weapons from reaching Gaza. Egypt is also passionate about its role as a leader of the Arab world, and, while that position can endure a cold peace with Israel, active opposition to Palestinian operations undermines this goal.
The sympathy for the Palestinians certainly makes it unsurprising that Israel might have a video showing Egyptian soldiers looking the other way as smuggling goes on. Considering how frequent such an occurrence is along borders that are not housing conflicts and militant groups (like the US' borders, for instance), it stands to reason such incidents would be found on the Egyptian-Gazan border. Israel leveled this accusation and Egypt responded by accusing Israel of fabricating the video. Either version is plausible, though it seems more likely that the video is genuine. It's likely enough that such things go on that Israel probably doesn't need to fabricate it. However, considering such "evidence" as proof that Egypt is not living up to its responsibilities is a major stretch. As noted, such incidents go on at borders all the time, and it is quite likely impossible to find 750 Egyptian security officers who do not sympathize with the Palestinians and can't be bribed, no different from any other nationality.
Tzipi Livini's brazen accusation against Egypt has essentially thrown the gauntlet down in front of Egypt. Click here to see how the so-called "pro-Israel" media is treating this episode. The Egyptian government is not sympathetic to Hamas; as a relative group of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas frightens the Mubarak government. But they have their limitations in action. Livni certainly knows this. But Israel has been making its case most loudly in Washington, and this has caused great concern in Egypt. Indeed, Egypt has begun to threaten diplomatic reprisals if Israel doesn't stop trying to undermine its relationship with the US.
The situation became even more tense this past week when Egypt permitted over 2,000 Palestinians returning from the hajj in Saudi Arabia to re-enter Gaza through the Rafah crossing. Rafah has been closed almost entirely since Hamas' takeover of Gaza in June. Israel wanted them to cross through an Israeli-controlled passage, presumably so they could weed out and arrest members of Hamas and other militant groups among the returning pilgrims and to check to see if any smuggling of arms, cash or goods was going on among them.
The hammering on Egypt would seem to be largely rooted in Israeli domestic politics. The starving of the Gazan population and the repeated, small-scale incursions into Gaza are not stemming the flow of qassam rockets out of the Strip. Indeed, a rocket went particularly deep into Israel last week, hitting in Ashkelon farther from Gaza than any missile has in the past. Israel is loathe to launch a full-scale invasion of Gaza for several reasons, not the least of which is that Hamas is entrenched and is relatively well-armed, from intelligence reports. Thus, the Olmert government appears to be sitting idly by while Hamas builds up its fighting ability. Egypt provides a scapegoat.
But the raising of tensions with the Arab state that was the first to make peace with Israel (a peace that, while certainly not ideal, has lasted for over a quarter century with no major interruption) is a short-sighted and potentially disastrous policy. If there is to be any hope of regional stability, and if there is any hope for resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict (for which Egypt's help and support is crucial) it must lie in a cooperative environment where Egypt and other Arab countries are able to contribute to peace without compromising their own internal stability and standing in the Arab world. Antagonizing Egypt is a dead-end for Israel.
Israel and the Palestinian Territories
With George W. Bush scheduled to make his first trip to Israel this week, the tensions in the Occupied Territories are simmering in an ominous fashion. A poll released this week showed that Palestinians were more supportive than they had been of the rocket attacks on Israel. What is of even greater concern is the widespread disillusionment of Palestinians in both Fatah and Hamas. While this could lead, down the road, to superior political options for Palestinians, for the moment this indicates a serious (and sadly justified) lack of hope.
Ehud Olmert himself confirmed that Israel is not living up to its own responsibilities under the "Roadmap," specifically referring to the lack of government action regarding settlement expansion and the immobility against so-called "outposts" which are illegal under Israeli law (all the settlements are illegal under international law). Yet Olmert's hand-wringing still rings hollow; after all, it is well within his power to act immediately against the outposts as well as to take a strong stand on a settlement freeze. It would seem most likely that this public declaration is being made for Bush's benefit ahead of his visit to the region and will fade away as soon as Bush leaves.
In a more interesting development, the Fatah leadership has taken strong stances to reverse some previous concessions that it perhaps deems to have been given too hastily. Palestinian leaders have declared that all settlements must be removed, a shift from previous agreements that had granted that the "major settlement blocs" (Gush Etzion, Ma'ale Adumim and Ariel) would remain in place. They are also resisting a demilitarized state, something that had previously been agreed to. Both of these would seem to be reactions to Israeli actions. Settlement expansion despite Palestinian flexibility on territory would seem to be the impetus behind the stronger stance on retaining all of the West Bank. While it may be probable that some land exchange will happen to allow Israel to annex at least some of the settlement blocs, as we pointed out last week, this concession turned out to simply create a new starting point for negotiations. the Palestinians are belatedly wise to move away from the earlier agreement.
On the demilitarized state, this is the Palestinian response to Israeli demands that a future Palestinian state not only be demilitarized, but that it also permit an Israeli security presence inside its border and that it permit larger Israeli mobilizations should an "emergency" arise. One is hard pressed to imagine any state agreeing to such terms.
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