JVP News Roundup: Backing Away From War With Iran

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The biggest news this week was the National Intelligence Estimate that confirmed that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program four years ago. The report contains a great deal of hedging and uncertainty, which is allowing the Bush Administration to at least attempt to distort its meaning, but the impact at this stage seems pretty clear.

Because the NIE report is the result of the combined efforts of 16 intelligence agencies, it is very difficult to dismiss, even with all of the hemming and qualifications they included. The assessment states that Iran is unlikely to be pursuing nuclear weaponry at this time and that, even if they resumed immediately, are not likely to be able to produce a weapon until 2015.

Some believe that the Bush Administration will only push harder to find a way to go to war with Iran. But this report is a major obstacle in that road. The Bush/Cheney crew are certainly not giving up on war with Iran, but even before this report that was not a likely prospect. Not only was the general public opposed to a war with Iran, so are many of the senior military leaders. While Defense Secretary Robert Gates has never openly differed with the President, indications are that he is opposed to war with Iran as well, if for no other reason (like the military heads) than that the Iraq debacle has depleted American capabilities too much.

Bush's response to the NIE report lays bare the US' disregard for both international law and common sense standards. Iran, under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is entitled to enrich uranium for civilian energy use. Yet, Bush would deny them this right for no reason other than the fact that Iran is a rival to the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, his harping on the "great crime" Iran committed by pursuing a covert nuclear program opens the door to the same issue being raised about Israel's own nuclear capability, which remain an open secret, one everyone knows about but which has never been laid bare before the world.

Bush, of course, knew about the NIE report even before he started using apocalyptic rhetoric about Iran as recently as October. It is a testament to his deeply-held belief that the American public will believe anything as long as the President says it that he has publicly interpreted the NIE report as reinforcing his designs in the region. He has promised "no change" in his policy on Iran. But the report will make likely make it nearly impossible to convince the American public or the Europeans to support a war.

Indeed, the first concern right now of the hawks is to make sure they can maintain the existing sanctions on Iran. Most particularly, Israel and some Washington Jewish groups are scrambling to contain the damage the report could do to the policy of isolation of and refusal to talk with Iran.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni dismissed the NIE report out of hand, an attitude which is reflected throughout the Israeli government. Ephraim Sneh of Labor said that Israel must accelerate its own readiness, though he stopped well short of indicating that Israel should attack Iran itself. This is wise on his part, as a poll taken just after the release of the NIE report stated that more than 2/3 of Israelis oppose an attack on Iran, while barely over 20% support one. But this is not stemming the tide of Israeli histrionics on this point. Still, the awareness of the Israeli public is a hopeful indication that their leaders might have to follow the public's better judgment.

Israelis, with a significant portion of their own population having originated in Iran, have a generally better understanding of Iran than Americans do (for more background, see the article here), and they can recall well that, even in the most fiery days of the Iranian revolution, Israel was able to deal politically with Iran when it wanted to. Indeed, some notable Israelis are calling on Israel to seize this opportunity to talk with Iran and ratchet down the tensions that have been building. Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, points out as well that Israel has a real opportunity here, one that it seems intent on missing.

The American Jewish leadership, showing yet again how far out of step it is with mainstream, let alone progressive, Jewish opinion, has mobilized quickly to push for maintaining current US policy on Iran, although the Bush Administration does not seem to need such pressure. Far from expressing any relief that Israel was not facing a nuclear threat, AIPAC and the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations scrambled to find ways to find ways to maintain their campaigns against Iran. Only in a world as Orwellian as American Middle East politics could these groups be credibly called "pro-Israel." Even as staunch a hawk as Tom Lantos (D-CA) said that the NIE report made the case for diplomacy and criticized Bush's handling of Iran.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reveled in victory in the wake of the NIE report. He might want to temper that, though. The US has won support for continuing sanctions and, thus far, is not heeding advice that recommends incentives be dangled in addition to pressure from sanctions to resolve this ongoing dispute. Perhaps cooler heads will prevail. But recent history doesn't support much hope in that regard.

Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories

Israel moved very quickly to undermine any hope of any progress after the Annapolis conference last month. Although once again delayed for a few days by the Israeli High Court, the plan to reduce power to Gaza is moving forward. The power cut is a very obvious example of collective punishment. It will not harm Hamas--indeed, such moves only strengthen the resolve of both the group and of the Palestinians of Gaza to support them. It certainly does nothing to prevent the continuing firing of mortars and rockets from Gaza at Israeli towns nearby. All it does is increase the already massive humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Israeli peace activists put up 10,000 fake notices in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem stating that the residents there would be facing power cuts. The action got a lot of attention and was designed to increase awareness in Israel of the devastating effects the power outage would have on the civilians of Gaza. "Through this activity we are interested in raising the awareness of Israeli citizens to the arbitrariness of these offensive moves and to try to create solidarity with the plight of civilians in Gaza," said the activists.

Israel continued attacks on Gaza, attacks which the Palestinian UN envoy said have destroyed "hope for peace." (One should note, however, that the article cited here is incorrect in asserting that no Israelis have been killed by Palestinians this year; according to B'Tselem, five Israeli civilians have been killed by Palestinians in 2007, a figure still very much dwarfed by the figure of 316 killed by Israeli forces this year, which is considerably fewer, however, than asserted in this article). Click here for UN OCHA's report on the activities in the Occupied Territories.

Israel also announced it would build 300 new houses in the East Jerusalem settlement of Har Homa. It is important to remember that, despite the inaccurate description in most media of Har Homa, and other East Jerusalem settlements as "neighborhoods", these are no different for the Palestinians or from the point of view of international law from any other settlement in the West Bank. The expansion of Har Homa, the construction of which in the late 1990s was one of the flash points that set the powder keg of the second intifada up, is obviously going to undercut any Palestinian hopes for an agreement on the question of East Jerusalem. This fact was recognized even by the US, which has asked for a "clarification", which is often code for the US telling Israel to suspend a certain action until later. But Condi Rice went farther in criticizing the action, which might have some impact. In any case, it was a clear demonstration of Israel's contempt for any peace process.

In Palestine

Mahmoud Abbas has reiterated his willingness to dialogue with Hamas...but only on condition that they first give up control of Gaza. While that's not terribly likely to happen, each time Abbas makes such a statement, it should be a signal, to the US, israel and the Arab League, that mediation of this dispute is central to any hope for progress on ending the occupation and finding some accommodation between Israel and the Palestinians. It is simply inconceivable that a deal brokered with Hamas completely isolated from it can possibly hold. A growing number of Fatah activists are pressing for Abbas to hold talks without any preconditions. Outside pressure in this direction can well bring about a unified Palestinian leadership that would be credible and be able to sell a deal with Israel, should one ever come about, very quickly.

Such an atmosphere, however, is not being created by moves such as the one last week by the PA to close down all Palestinian charities. Since many of these are run by Hamas and other Islamist groups, the move is widely seen as an attempt to undercut both their networks and their support in the Palestinian street.

Finally, new polls by An-Najah University and the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion revealed a sharp decline in Hamas' popularity and general, but tepid, support for participation in the Annapolis conference. But despite the drop in the number of people who say they would vote for Hamas, the party remains a potent force, and one which Palestinians wish to see removed from its current isolation.

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