The situation in Gaza is dire, and also confusing for many. JVP has assembled this newsletter to help clear some of the fog surrounding current events. Below, you will find an abridged version of a longer article by JVP's Director of Education and Policy, Mitchell Plitnick offering an analysis of the events in Gaza.

We are also recommending some articles for further reading, and we'll continue to bring you these sorts of updates. This issue of our newsletter is focused on Gaza, but we will bring the same quality analysis to you on all the myriad issues surrounding the Israel-Palestine conflict.

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Gaza: Can Disaster Be Avoided?

Mitchell Plitnick
Click here for the full version of this article

Back in 2005, Jewish Voice for Peace took to the streets in San Francisco to protest the just-commencing Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Of course, JVP was never opposed to Israel withdrawing its soldiers and checkpoints and abandoning its settlements in Gaza. But doing the right thing in the wrong way can be just as bad, in some ways perhaps worse, than doing the wrong thing, and this was what we saw happening with the Gaza withdrawal. Sadly, this prediction has come true, now leaving the Palestinians split between two governing bodies, leaving Gaza in ruin and chaos and leaving Israel with an increasingly hostile and dangerous territory on its western border. The first thing one sees when looking at the current split among the Palestinians is that the situation is not one that can last. It's eminently clear that the forces arrayed against Hamas-the US, Israel, Fatah, the moderate Arab states, the EU-are not going to be content with the status quo. Fatah in particular will not just sit idly by and let some 1.5 million Palestinians be governed by someone else. They will have considerable support from outside in pressing Hamas, politically, economically and militarily. For its part, Hamas has already shown they can and will act aggressively in pursuing their own position atop Palestinian society.

Right now, reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas does not seem realistic and there is no third option in the Palestinian polity. This would seem to indicate that, at least for the time being, these two groups will continue to work against one another and that the opportunity to engage the broad spectrum of the Palestinian people by dealing with a broad-based government with Abbas at its head is lost. Still, even though the leaders of Fatah and Hamas have done little more than pay lip service to the value of national unity among the Palestinians, this value remains strong among the Palestinian populace. That might pressure change and force the two groups together at some point. But such a possibility is not on the radar right now.

On the other hand, the view that seems to be dominating both Washington and Jerusalem right now is quite distorted. It seems that the US and Israel believe that they can crush Hamas for good by strengthening Abbas with a peace summit and encouraging aggressive actions against Hamas in the West Bank. The latter is a foolish strategy, and one that has repeatedly bolstered Hamas, rather than weakened it. Indeed, virtually every attempt by Israel, the US and much of the rest of the world to harm Hamas has helped them over the years, and if foreign hands are seen too clearly in Fatah's attacks on Hamas, support for Fatah, even from within, will quickly wither.

Many analysts, including this one, have been urging for some time that Hamas must be dealt with, not shunned. By engaging Hamas and forcing them into politics rather than ideological grandstanding, they will be forced to confront the ineffectiveness of their more extreme positions, which is precisely what happened after the election. This is why they were forced to allow Abbas to represent the Palestinian government in the Arab League vote on their peace proposal, and to allow him to keep his leading position in any negotiations and contacts with Israel.

That Abbas will not come back to Ramallah bearing an acceptable final status resolution is inevitable. The only way he can do that is to offer at least the hope that Israel can be convinced to return to something close to the 1967 borders, to share Jerusalem and to agree to acknowledge the refugees' right of return, allow a token number back to Israel and compensate the rest. Abbas need not actually deliver all of that. But the whole idea of bolstering Abbas with a summit rests on the presumption that a sufficient number of Palestinians can be convinced that Abbas, freed of the burden of Hamas, can deliver the minimal Palestinian demands some time in the near future. Abbas will need to show some concrete indication that he can pull this off, and he will have to do so with a very skeptical audience. The Olmert government is far too weak to even signal the possibility of such concessions, much less actually make them.

It is far from certain that Fatah would win an all-out battle for the West Bank. But it is very likely that Israel would be drawn into a conflict there, either to defend Fatah or because some Palestinians decide to bring them in with an attack on Israelis. The resulting violence would expand very quickly, and would not only quickly bring back, and possibly surpass, the worst days of the last intifada, but is likely to spark off conflicts in other areas of the Middle East. There is very little good that can come of Fatah's aggressive actions against Hamas in the West Bank, and the potential for a great deal of harm.

And there are new concerns, ones which Israel had better take very seriously. For quite some time now, we have heard from Mahmoud Abbas as well as from Hamas leaders of attempts by al-Qaeda and similar groups to gain a foothold within the Palestinian Territories. Thus far, these have been rebuffed, and nothing in the current developments will make either Fatah or Hamas more receptive to such groups. But the general chaos in Gaza may well make it much more difficult for the Palestinians to keep these groups out, and if Hamas is proven to be a failure, the radical elements in Palestinian society are going to turn not to more moderate elements, but to still more radical ones, giving these groups a foothold. This would be exceedingly dangerous for Israelis. Whatever one thinks of Hamas or Fatah, they are not the same at all as al-Qaeda, simplistic Western propaganda notwithstanding. The last thing any Israeli civilian wants is to see al-Qaeda operating on their doorstep.

The simple fact is that there can never be any progress between Israel and the Palestinians if a big chunk of the Palestinian community, the Islamists, are excluded from the process. Not only will many other Palestinians support their right to be heard, but groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad can easily derail any peace process with attacks on Israelis, as they have so often done in the past. They need to be engaged so they will have incentive to refrain from such actions. The alternative is not just failure, it is a brand of radicalism that will be much worse.

Any crisis contains in it the seeds of progress. These opportunities have been routinely missed by all parties. This one has the potential for serious consequences throughout the region, as well as the potential to make any kind of peace unrealistic for years to come. That must not be allowed to happen. Israel, the US, the PA, Hamas, the UN, the Arab League, indeed, the entire world has got to allow good judgment and cooler heads to prevail in this matter. If everyone continues to only pursue their own political ends, disaster is sure to follow. But history has witnessed occasions where people with understanding of prevailing conditions and dynamics and sufficient diplomatic skill overcome politics to bring about significant progress, and it is not unusual for such things to happen just at the brink of disaster. Let's hope that is the course that is chosen. In fact, let's demand it.