JPN SPECIAL: Shin Bet Says Palestinian Truce Main Reason For Dramatic Decline In Deaths and Injuries in 2005

January 2, 2006

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[JPN Commentary: For many years, peace movements have been virtually shouting that the way to decrease the violence in Israel and the Occupied Territories is for Palestinians to be given reason to desist from such attacks. While the Israeli government, whether controlled by Labor or Likud, along with the United States and the so-called "mainstream" Jewish organizations have insisted that peace can only come when the violence stops, peace groups, and most analysts worth their salt, have realized the obvious--that it is peace that ends the violence, a peace that is not imposed by the strong on the weak but one that offers justice and hope for all concerned.

This is not the first time the Israeli military or security establishment has issued a report that bolsters our claim, but it is the first time that such a report also includes the ineffectiveness of the wall that Israel is building in the West Bank. Israel's General Security Services, the Shin Bet, issued a report today that fatalities among Israelis were down by 60% (dropping from 117 to 45) in 2005 and injuries down by 30% (they do not give the raw number), and the main reason for this was the truce declared by Hamas last January. That truce ended yesterday.

While both Islamic Jihad and the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade were inconsistent in abiding by the truce, Hamas did stick with it, and the other groups did at least reduce their activities as a result of the truce declaration. It should also be noted (and it is not in any of the reports I have yet seen about the Shin Bet statistics) that, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent Society (PRCS) and B'Tselem, Palestinian injuries and deaths declined even more steeply in 2005. According to B'Tselem, 190 Palestinians were killed by Israeli soldiers or settlers in 2005, down from 822 in 2004, a reduction of nearly 77%. The PRCS reports 2005 injuries to Palestinians totaling 986, a major (75%) drop from the 2004 total of 4009. One can only hope that the armed Palestinian groups look at these statistics and consider carefully whether they really wish to escalate violence back to the bloody levels seen for most of the second intifada.

The Shin Bet report didn't even mention the wall as a contributing factor because, as most sensible people and all the peace groups predicted from the outset, Palestinians wishing to commit attacks have found ways around or through the wall. The report does attribute some of the drop to Israeli operations in the Palestinian territories, though none of the reports, this one included, makes mention of why operations that have been going on for years were suddenly more effective in 2005. But the Shin Bet clearly states that the major reason for the decline was the truce.

The Gaza withdrawal was a double-edged sword in this regard. While it did allow Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to make more headway in getting the truce declared, the unilateral nature of the withdrawal also undermined his efforts and led to the ending of the truce at the New Year.

Many of the other news outlets reporting on the Shin Bet findings highlight the smuggling of anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles into Gaza. But it is telling that Israeli Public Security Minister Gideon Ezra shows little concern for these activities, and firmly states that suicide bombings and not these weapons are his main worry. It is unclear whether the Palestinians have delivery systems for these missiles, but in any case, it is clear from Ezra's statement that Israel remains quite comfortable in its enormous military superiority.

This being the case, it is simply madness to continue the violence. The rewards of doing some justice to the Palestinians are more clear than ever. Imagine for a moment a West Bank free of settlements, bypass roads and Israeli military installations. Imagine a shared Jerusalem. Imagine the Palestinian population in such a circumstance, where the vast majority would then oppose attacks on Israel. Imagine a more secure and confident Israeli population, which would then recognize the great gains it could make by dismantling the infrastructure of occupation and building a future with a Palestinian ally. Imagine Israel helping, rather than hindering, a Palestinian democracy to come into being. Even the vexing problem of the Palestinian refugees, the core of the conflict for the past 58 years, could then be reasonably dealt with, with both sides negotiating in good faith and with every reason to find an accommodation that both could live with.

2005 is proof that this is possible. For all the ongoing violence, for all the devastation the wall has brought, for all the continuing ill will this past year saw, the Shin Bet report proves that a reduction in the violence of occupation and the removal of settlements paves the way for real progress. We can be certain that Ariel Sharon is not inclined to take advantage of this--his love of the wall, his maneuvering for Israel to keep key portions of the West Bank and his absolute refusal to discuss anything of substance-- let along tough issues like Jerusalem-- with the Palestinians demonstrates his stance all too well. Equally unlikely is that Fatah's old guard, currently in control of the Palestinian Authority, is capable of bringing such a vision closer to reality. But the conditions for a just peace are still here, waiting for leaders from both Palestine and Israel to take advantage of them. 2005, as hard as it was, proved it. It wouldn't be easy, and it would take years. But it is not impossible, and now we can state that as fact, not only opinion. -- MP]


Shin Bet: Palestinian truce main cause for reduced terror
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent and Haaretz Service

01/02/2006
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/664959.html

Public Security Minister Gideon Ezra on Monday confirmed that the Palestinians have succeeded in smuggling anti-aircraft missiles into the Gaza Strip. Reiterating statistics released by the Shin Bet security service on terrorist activity in year 2005 Ezra also confirmed Palestinian militant groups in the Strip were in possession of over 300 anti-tank missiles.

"Yes, this is true," Ezra replied when asked about an unspecified number of anti-aircraft missiles as well as 300 anti-tank missiles that made their way into the Gaza Strip according to the Shin Bet report.

Speaking on Israel Radio the Public Security Minister said "it is clear that in light of the trickling in of explosives from Egypt into the Gaza area shortly after the disengagement the passage of people from Gaza to the West Bank will have to come under stricter surveillance."

Ezra stressed, however, that Israel's prime security concerns are with suicide bombers who keep striving to carry out attacks in Israel proper.

"Whomever is talking of the danger of Qassam rockets launched from the West Bank needs to be reminded that we are most concerned about suicide bombers entering Israel," he said.

Drop in terror is due to truce with militants

The Shin Bet's statistics on terror attacks confirm the public perception that terrorist activity in 2005 dropped considerably compared to the previous four and a half years. The main reason for the sharp decline is the truce in the territories, the security service said Sunday.

Terrorist attacks claimed the lives of 45 Israelis last year, compared to 117 in 2004, marking a 60 percent reduction.

This is the third year in a row in which the number of terrorist acts has been reduced sharply. At the height of the intifada, in 2002, 450 Israelis were killed by terrorists. An equal number of Israelis were killed in traffic accidents in 2005. In other words, the number of terror fatalities in 2005 is less than one-tenth of the number of traffic accident fatalities.

The Shin Bet and the Israel Defense Forces attribute the reduction mainly to the improvement in their joint capability to foil terrorist attacks and to act against terrorist organizations.

The security fence is no longer mentioned as the major factor in preventing suicide bombings, mainly because the terrorists have found ways to bypass it. The fence does make it harder for them, but the flawed inspection procedures at its checkpoints, the gaps and uncompleted sections enable suicide bombers to enter Israel.

Five suicide bombings took place this year - two in Netanya, one in Hadera, one in Tel Aviv and one, with no fatalities, in Be'er Sheva - compared to only two in 2004. The number of fatalities resulting from these attacks has risen a little, from 14 to 21.

But the main reason for the reduction in terrorist acts over the past year is the truce in the territories, as partial as it may be. The fact that Hamas, in general, stopped engaging in terror activities changed the picture. The Islamic Jihad network in the West Bank upgraded its capability and was responsible for the murder of 23 Israelis in 2005, but during that time, Hamas - the leading terror orgnanization in recent years - has scaled back its engagement in terror. Its focus on the political arena and the preparations for the Palestinian parliamentary elections have limited its active involvement in terror to a large extent.

The Shin Bet holds Hamas directly responsible for only one fatal attack in 2005 - the murder of Sasson Nuriel, who was kidnapped from Mishor Adumim and taken to Ramallah, where he was executed by a local Hamas cell.

The reduced number of attacks is also related to the disengagement and the army's withdrawal from friction points in the Gaza Strip. In the past year there have been fewer explosive charges (199 compared to 592), fewer mortar shells (848 compared to 1,231) and fewer shooting incidents (1,133 copared to 1,621). Only the number of Qassam rockets fired at Israel has increased - 377 Qassam-launching incidents occurred (an event can include several rockets launched simultaneously) compared to 309 in the previous year.
Jewish Peace News Editors:
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Lincoln Shlensky
Rela Mazali
Sarah Anne Minkin
Joel Beinin
Racheli Gai

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